One of the last frontier markets to emerge in Asia, we see Vietnam as a ten-year buy.
- Merrill Lynch strategy report, February 2006
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:: Vietnam Stock Markets ::
HOSE - Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange
HASTC - Hanoi Stock Trading Center
:: Vietnam Stock Brokers ::
Ho Chi Minh City Securities - HSC
:: Vietnam Funds ::
:: Vietnam Stock News ::
current gold price per ounce is 787
import tax is 1%
free market rate for VND/USD is around 16700
tael to ounce is 1.20337
That comes out to around 16 million while the banks are selling for 17.1 million now.
After looking at numerous charts, I think gold is going down further. I would hope Vietnamese panic and start selling. I want to see the premium go down, so it will be a better buy when I do make a purchase.
I think having dong deposits right now is much safer than gold or even dollars because of governmental policies put into place. However, I am cashing out all my dong in a few months. I don't trust the government to administer this tough love for a long time.
VND is going to plummet next year against the USD.
premium is now 765000 dong for a tael
That's with gold prices at 822. It was at 500000 when gold went close to 840 last week. I believe it's tough as heck to make money in gold now with interest rates on the dong still at around 18% per year. I have my money in dong term deposits now. I figure that it will stay that way until Tet unless this gold premium goes way down.
Vietnamese are pretty good top and bottom pickers, but I believe gold and all commodities have entered a bear market along with other assets. They will be bottom picking and picking up scraps unless they are damn good at picking the exact bottoms and tops.
Vietnamese are good top and bottom pickers
That's why you see mobs of Vietnamese crowding goldsmiths
when gold was trading below US$800.
There's a total ban on gold
There's a total ban on gold import; severe shortage of gold bullions. Gold smuggling is next on the card.
Concerted global central bank interventions in buying USD brought temporary relief to USD. Vietnamese are very familiar with gold during period of uncertainty.