One of the last frontier markets to emerge in Asia, we see Vietnam as a ten-year buy.
- Merrill Lynch strategy report, February 2006
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:: Vietnam Stock Markets ::
HOSE - Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange
HASTC - Hanoi Stock Trading Center
:: Vietnam Stock Brokers ::
Ho Chi Minh City Securities - HSC
:: Vietnam Funds ::
:: Vietnam Stock News ::
As Oil slips, does Gold still glitter?
The question has to be asked.
With oil dropping to around $120 a barrel on world markets, Gold has seen a smaller pullback finding support around $930 an ounce.
But historically Oil and Gold tend to be correlated, so if Oil is on its way to $100 as some have suggested, what does the future hold for Gold?
After the party comes the hangover. And inquiring minds are wondering if the commodities party is over.
And if so, will Gold follow the commodities trend or diverge and make its own way?
Here is are some posts making the case for this possibility:
The Gold - Oil Ratio: Another Look - Seeking Alpha
Buying Gold for Oil Like George Soros - Seeking Alpha
Interesting to note that no less an investor than George Soros apparently went short Oil at $137 and long Gold:
On his column at Forbes.com on July 17, 2008, “Gold And Oil For Soros”, Robert Lenzner says that the legendary investor George Soros, Chairman of Soros Fund Management,“finally shorted oil at $137 a barrel and put on a long position in gold; he expects to see gold hold its ground even if oil continues to decline”.
The reason for this move, according to Lenzner, is his belief in a consistent price ratio of 10-to-1 between gold and oil, and since this ratio fell lately to 7.4, “either gold will rise to 10 times a barrel of oil ($1,350 an ounce) or oil will fall to $96 a barrel--one-tenth the present market price of gold”.
Many hedge fund types seem to be playing this oil-old divergence at the moment, which could give a boost to gold's fortunes.
However Gold also has its bears, vis Cramer:
Gold and Vietnam
Not really a great or insightful post, but this may be of interest to some:
How Vietnam is Coping with Hyper-Inflation - Seeking Alpha
10-1 Gold-Oil ratio
Soros is playing on this correlation.
The thought of VN confiscating gold bullion deposited with banks is scary(They did confiscated everything in the banks after 75's liberation). No wonder 90% of Vietnamese prefer to keep the shiny stuff under their mattresses.
Short-term excess liquidity of gold has dried up;
hence VN gold price is very much higher that global market price. Higher inflation is on the card...hyperinflation? What about stagflation?
Stock market is down again(no surprise). Can we
trust 1H results? Real estate still in doldrum (21% loan doesn't help). High interest rates are killing biz. Rampant blackouts are also closing biz. Inflation will deplete your VND purchasing power. I am hearing petrol price will increase again to 25,000/litre(now 19,000/litre) - to discourage smuggling at the Cambodian's border and to do away with the oil subsidy.
VN banned gold import(shortage). Iran is still a
big problem; so is Nigeria's insurgency. What other option(s) does the average Vietnamese has
to protect his(her) assets besides gold bullion?