One of the last frontier markets to emerge in Asia, we see Vietnam as a ten-year buy.
- Merrill Lynch strategy report, February 2006
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:: Vietnam Stock Markets ::
HOSE - Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange
HASTC - Hanoi Stock Trading Center
:: Vietnam Stock Brokers ::
Ho Chi Minh City Securities - HSC
:: Vietnam Funds ::
:: Vietnam Stock News ::
Inflation+recession=stagflation
Fed can't hike rates b'cos of recession, neither can it cut rates b'cos of inflation. So, what do
we have?
Oil touched $140. SBV just 'devalued' again by
widening VND trading to +/- 2%. VN banned gold import and banks pay about 5% for gold deposit.
To sit out this period of uncertainties, gold
looks good. Agree or disagree? Other better
options?
Gold is good but beware
The VND is gaining back its momentum after some actions by the SBV. Exchange rate has fallen to less than 17000 VND for a USD. So keeping USD at this moment is no longer a good investment.
Stock market has recovered slightly but I expect it to fall off again late next week.
So gold is good now given the depreciating USD. But beware at sensitive moments e.g. $950/ounce, $1000/ounce.
Stability vs Uncertainty
Government actions seem to be bringing greater stability to the currency markets and they may yet rout the speculators. But we are not out of the woods yet and this is far from a done deal.
So place your bets: Are you an optimist or a pessimist?
Stability or Uncertainty?
Which way will the markets go?
Globally it looks like we may be in for more uncertainty which could be good for Gold.
Locally uncertainty looms large, but we may be backing away from the abyss of a few weeks ago...
Gold is the traditional refuge in uncertain times.
So if you have had enough risk and want to reduce your heart rate and hedge your bets, then Gold looks pretty good, especially with 5% interest for your troubles.
And if the world comes crashing down and the dollar shrinks further then you still have some yellow metal you can hold onto.
I don't think you will get rich off of gold here, but for a hedge and diversification, by all means go for it.
What's the downside?
Cheap VN gold
Fed likely to rescue Fannie and Freddie( 5 trillion mess) by printing more $$$$$ - higher
inflation on the horizon.
Geopolitical tension increased by Iran's missile
test.
And, gold is the beneficiary.
One thing still puzzled me is the price of gold in VN. Gold closed in NY at US$965/ounce. 1 tael = 1.21 ounces. US$1=16,840 (official rate)
i.e. SJC gold tael = US$965 X 1.21 X 16,840
= 19,663,226 VND
Today(12 July) at the goldsmith, the quote is :
19,050,000 / 19,150,000
http://www.sjc.com.vn/
Did I miss out something in my calculation?
It's true! VN gold is trading at a steep discount!
http://english.vietnamnet.vn/biz/2008/07/793316/
"The current global gold prices, if calculated using forex quotes by commercial banks plus tax and other costs, is equivalent to VND 19.85 million a tael. Thus, domestic gold prices are currently lower than world prices."
Temporary excess liquidity in gold
That's the reason why there's a discrepancy between VN and the world gold pricings. This
anomaly will last for one or two weeks, as
VN gold importers had overbought in 1Q08 when
gold was trading near to US$1,000. But, with the
ban on gold import, VN gold should trade higher
than world market pretty soon.
The correct price for VN gold tael = 19,865,478 VND, when world price = US$965.75