Halloween this year poses a very serious question: Trick or Treat?
October was a horrible, devastating month for the markets. But the last week brought a rally of over 10% in the Dow, S&P, Nasdaq...
So what to believe?
Have we seen the worst? Have we found the bottom? Is it time to jump in buy with both feet? The buying opportunity of a lifetime?
Or should we hunker down and play it safe in anticipation of darker days ahead. Are there more surprises lurking along this murky road to depression and deleveraging?
Is this a buyable bottom or a bear market rally we need to sell?
There are predictably several schools of thought here:
Things Could Be Worse...
Five Signs of a Market Bottom
Q109? Q2? When the Market Will Recover
Don't expect any consensus here so tread carefully.
There is a sound and sensible case for wading into the markets here, but there are also a lot of unknowns. Watch your step, pick wisely and don't count on a quick recovery, because it will be anything but...
And remember there are still major issues and questions about inflation, deflation, credit, deleveraging, not to mention all major currencies...
Another BAD month
Another REALLY BAD month. Time for a bounce? Or more bloodshed?
■ MSCI Word Index: -19.1% (largest monthly decline since the Index started in 1969, beating October 1987’s -17.1%)
■ MSCI Emerging Markets Index: -27.1% (worst monthly loss since Russia’s debt default in August 1998)
■ Dow Jones Industrial Index: -14.1% (15th worst monthly decline since 1900 and the biggest drop since October 1987)
■ S&P 500 Index: -16.9% (8th worst one-month decline since 1930)
■ U.S. Dollar Index: +7.8% (4th best one-month improvement since 1967)
■ Reuters/Jeffries CRB Index: -22.3% (worst monthly decline since the Index started in 1956)
■ Crude-oil futures: -32.6% (worst one-month drop since oil futures started trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange in 1983)
■ Reuters/Jeffries CRB Industrials Index: -26.5% (sharpest monthly decline since the series started in 1971)
■ Gold futures: -18.5% (biggest monthly loss since 1983)
But we did see a strong bounce in the last week (which helped to prevent even deeper losses). Question is can it continue?
Global Stock Markets: Torrid October Ends with a Bang
Disastrous October
Please, Let October Be Worst of It
September was an awful month, but October was a disaster. September's across-the-board losses for all the major asset classes suffered a repeat performance in October, only more so. The declines last month were in all cases bigger than September's, in some cases a lot bigger.
REITs suffered the biggest blow in October, falling a shocking 32%. But no other asset class was spared, including U.S. stocks, which tumbled nearly 18%, as per the Russell 3000. It was, to summarize the obvious, the worst month in memory, perhaps the worst in modern times. If you want to see what hell looks like in the investment game, October 2008 looks set to stand as a benchmark of the abyss for generations to come.
No wonder, then, that our measure of the global market portfolio index slumped 15.7% last month--the fifth straight month of losses, and the biggest one yet.